Understanding Moneyline and Spread Conversions
Moneyline odds and point spreads are two different ways to bet on the same game outcome. While they're mathematically related through implied probability, the relationship isn't a simple formula—it varies by sport, game context, and market conditions. This converter helps you understand how these betting formats connect.
How Moneyline Odds Work
Moneyline bets are straightforward: you're betting on which team wins. The odds tell you how much you need to stake (for favorites) or how much you'll win (for underdogs) based on a $100 reference:
- Favorite (-150): Bet $150 to win $100 profit
- Underdog (+130): Bet $100 to win $130 profit
The implied probability of a moneyline tells us what win rate you'd need to break even. Learn more about this in our break-even win rate calculator.
Underdog: 100 / (ML + 100) = Probability
Example: -150 → 150/(150+100) = 60%
Example: +130 → 100/(130+100) = 43.5%
How Point Spreads Work
Point spread bets "level the playing field" by adding or subtracting points from a team's final score. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) to cover.
Standard spread bets are priced at -110 on both sides, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. This 4.55% vig (juice) is the sportsbook's commission. For a deeper understanding of how bookmakers set these lines, see our guide on odds compilation and line setting.
The Relationship Between Formats
The key insight is that both bet types are pricing the same underlying probability—the chance of each team winning. A team with a 60% chance to win might be:
- -150 on the moneyline (you bet $150 to win $100)
- -3.5 on the spread at -110 (they need to win by 4+ points)
The spread represents the "expected margin of victory" for the favorite, adjusted for the distribution of possible scores in that sport. Research by UNLV's International Gaming Institute shows that historical NFL data suggests approximately 2.5-3% implied probability per point of spread for typical matchups.
Conversions are estimates based on mathematical relationships and historical patterns. Actual sportsbook lines may differ significantly due to: key numbers (3 and 7 in NFL), injury news affecting one market more than another, sharp money moving lines independently, and home field/court adjustments. Always compare actual lines rather than assuming exact conversions.
Sport-Specific Considerations
NFL (Football)
Football has the strongest spread-to-moneyline correlation because scoring is discrete (touchdowns and field goals). Key numbers 3 and 7 create "sticky" spreads where the line stays put but moneyline odds adjust. For more on NFL betting markets, see our complete spread betting guide.
NBA (Basketball)
Basketball has higher scoring and more variance, making spreads less "sticky." Double-digit favorites often have much higher moneyline odds than football equivalents because comebacks are more common. The NBA also sees more late-game fouling that affects final margins.
MLB (Baseball)
Baseball uses run lines (typically -1.5/+1.5) instead of traditional spreads. Moneyline is the primary market, with run line conversions following different patterns due to baseball's lower-scoring nature and the impact of pitching matchups.
NHL (Hockey)
Hockey uses puck lines (typically -1.5/+1.5). Like baseball, the moneyline is primary. Hockey's low scoring and frequent overtime games make spread-to-moneyline conversions less predictable than football.
When Conversions Break Down
The moneyline-to-spread relationship isn't always linear. Here's when you'll see deviations:
- Close games: Pick'em games (no spread) show the most variance in moneyline pricing
- Extreme favorites: At -14 or more, small probability changes create large moneyline swings
- Key numbers: Spreads of -3 and -7 in NFL often have inflated moneylines due to their frequency
- Market movement: Sharp money can move one market while the other lags
Finding Value in Different Markets
Sometimes the moneyline offers better value than the spread (and vice versa). Compare the implied probabilities:
- Calculate the break-even percentage for the moneyline bet
- Calculate the break-even percentage for the spread bet (usually ~52.4% at -110)
- Estimate your true probability assessment
- Bet the market where your edge is larger
For small favorites (-3 or less in NFL), the moneyline sometimes offers better value because you don't need the extra points. Our expected value calculator can help you compare the mathematical edge of each bet type.
Different sportsbooks price moneylines and spreads independently. A book might have the best spread price but poor moneyline odds. Use our odds comparison calculator to find the best available price for whichever market you choose to bet.
Mathematical Approach to Conversions
While there's no perfect formula, academic research on sports betting markets (particularly from institutions like the American Gaming Association) suggests these approximations:
Example: 60% favorite → (60% - 50%) × 14 = 1.4 points
Actual market: typically -2.5 to -3
Note: This is a rough estimate. Key numbers and
sport-specific factors cause significant variation.
The formula above is a simplified heuristic. In practice, oddsmakers use sophisticated models incorporating team ratings, historical score distributions, and situational factors. For understanding betting margins, check our betting margins by sport article.