🎯 Calculate Break-Even Win Rate
Enter your betting odds in any format to see the minimum win rate needed to break even. Optionally enter your actual record to compare performance.
What This Means: At -110 odds, you must win 52.38% of your bets just to break even. Each win profits $90.91 while each loss costs $100. The gap between 50% and your break-even rate is the bookmaker's edge.
📊 Compare Your Actual Results
Enter your betting record to see if you're beating the break-even threshold.
📋 Break-Even Win Rate Reference
Quick reference showing the required win rate for common betting odds. According to American Gaming Association research, understanding these thresholds is essential for responsible sports betting.
| American Odds | Decimal Odds | Break-Even % | Profit to Risk Ratio | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -300 | 1.33 | 75.00% | $33 per $100 | Heavy Favorite |
| -200 | 1.50 | 66.67% | $50 per $100 | Strong Favorite |
| -150 | 1.67 | 60.00% | $67 per $100 | Moderate Favorite |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.38% | $91 per $100 | Standard Vig |
| -105 | 1.95 | 51.22% | $95 per $100 | Reduced Vig |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.00% | $100 per $100 | Even Money |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% | $150 per $100 | Underdog |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% | $200 per $100 | Long Shot |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.00% | $300 per $100 | Big Underdog |
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.67% | $500 per $100 | Long Shot |
Key Insight: Lower break-even percentages (plus-money underdogs) mean you can be profitable while losing more than half your bets. The UNLV International Gaming Institute notes that professional sports bettors often have sub-50% win rates but profit by consistently betting underdogs at value odds.
🧮 The Break-Even Formula
Understanding the math helps you evaluate any betting line quickly.
For Decimal Odds:
Example: Decimal 2.00 → (1 / 2.00) × 100 = 50% break-even
For American Favorites (-):
Example: -110 → 110 / (110 + 100) × 100 = 52.38% break-even
For American Underdogs (+):
Example: +150 → 100 / (150 + 100) × 100 = 40% break-even
Why This Matters: Break-even percentage equals the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the outcome. If you believe the true probability exceeds the implied probability, you've found a value bet. This is the foundation of profitable betting strategy, as explained in academic research on probability theory.
Understanding Break-Even Win Rate
Break-even win rate is perhaps the most important concept in betting mathematics. It tells you the minimum percentage of bets you must win to neither make nor lose money at given odds. Every bet you place has an implied break-even threshold built into the odds, and understanding this is crucial for evaluating whether you're truly profitable or just experiencing variance.
The UK Gambling Commission emphasizes that understanding odds mathematics helps bettors make more informed decisions. This calculator makes that math accessible.
Why 52.38% Matters at -110
The standard -110 odds on point spreads and totals requires a 52.38% win rate to break even. This extra 2.38% above 50% represents the sportsbook's margin (vig/juice). Here's why this matters:
- Win 52% of bets: You're losing money slowly (below break-even)
- Win 52.38% of bets: You're exactly breaking even
- Win 53% of bets: You're profiting (above break-even)
- Win 55% of bets: Excellent results, significant profit
Many bettors mistakenly believe winning 52% or 53% makes them skilled, when in reality, only those consistently above 52.38% at standard odds are profitable. Use our Sample Size Calculator to determine if your results are statistically significant.
The Vig and Your Break-Even Rate
The vigorish (vig/juice) built into odds directly affects your break-even threshold. Consider how different vig levels change your requirements:
- Zero vig (+100 both sides): 50.00% break-even (fair odds)
- Low vig (-105 both sides): 51.22% break-even (2.44% margin)
- Standard vig (-110 both sides): 52.38% break-even (4.55% margin)
- High vig (-115 both sides): 53.49% break-even (6.98% margin)
This is why shopping for the best lines matters. Betting -105 instead of -110 reduces your break-even requirement by over 1%—which compounds significantly over hundreds of bets. Our Vig Calculator helps you compare the true cost of different lines.
Underdog Betting and Break-Even
One counterintuitive aspect of break-even mathematics: you can be profitable while losing more bets than you win. At plus-money odds:
- +150 odds: Only need 40% win rate to break even
- +200 odds: Only need 33.33% win rate to break even
- +300 odds: Only need 25% win rate to break even
This means a bettor who wins just 35% of their +200 bets is actually profitable, despite losing nearly two-thirds of the time. Professional bettors often exploit this by finding value in underdog lines where sportsbooks have underestimated the true probability.
Applying Break-Even Analysis
To use break-even win rate effectively:
- Track your win rate by odds range: Calculate separate win rates for favorites, underdogs, and standard lines
- Compare to thresholds: Each odds level has its own break-even point
- Identify strengths/weaknesses: You might crush underdogs but lose on favorites
- Adjust strategy: Focus on odds ranges where you exceed break-even
Our Session Tracker can help you log results over time, while our Expected Value Calculator helps evaluate individual bets.
Related Concepts
Break-even win rate connects to several other important betting concepts:
- Variance and Expected Value - Understanding short-term fluctuations vs long-term results
- Closing Line Value - A better metric for measuring betting skill
- Bankroll Management - Sizing bets appropriately for your edge
- Betting Systems - Why systems can't overcome negative break-even odds
Frequently Asked Questions
What is break-even win rate in betting?
Break-even win rate is the minimum percentage of bets you must win to neither make nor lose money at given odds. At -110 odds (standard American sports betting), you need to win 52.38% of bets to break even. This accounts for the bookmaker's vig/juice built into the odds.
How do you calculate break-even win rate?
For decimal odds: Break-Even % = 1 / Decimal Odds × 100. For American odds favorites (-): Break-Even % = Risk / (Risk + Win) × 100. For American odds underdogs (+): Break-Even % = 100 / (Odds + 100) × 100. This gives you the implied probability built into the odds.
Why is break-even win rate important?
Understanding break-even win rate helps you evaluate if your betting results are actually profitable or just variance. If you're betting -110 lines and winning 51% of the time, you're losing money despite winning more than half your bets. It also helps identify value—if you believe your true win rate exceeds the break-even threshold, the bet has positive expected value.
What win rate do I need at -110 odds?
At -110 odds (the standard vig for point spreads and totals), you need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even. This means if you win exactly 52.38% of bets at -110, you'll neither profit nor lose over time. Winning 53% makes you profitable; winning 52% loses money slowly.
How does the vig affect break-even win rate?
The vig (vigorish/juice) is built into odds and raises your break-even threshold above 50%. With zero vig (fair odds), a coin flip would be +100 both sides requiring 50% to break even. The standard -110 vig creates a 4.55% margin, pushing break-even to 52.38%. Higher vig means higher break-even requirements.
What's the break-even win rate for parlays?
Parlay break-even rates depend on the number of legs and individual odds. A 2-leg parlay at -110 each needs to hit 27.44% of the time to break even. A 3-leg parlay needs 18.05%, and a 4-leg needs 11.88%. However, true probability of hitting decreases faster than payouts increase, which is why parlays favor the house.
Can I be profitable below 50% win rate?
Yes, absolutely. If you bet on underdogs at plus-money odds, you can be profitable while winning less than 50% of bets. At +150 odds, you only need to win 40% to break even. Professional bettors often have win rates below 50% but profit by consistently betting at favorable odds where their edge exceeds the implied probability.
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